CISA、Collabora Online と Arista VeloCloud Orchestrator を「可能性」から「すでに起きている」脆弱性へ格上げ

• Surginglamashtu — 7 claims in 7 days against 1.2 expected from its own prior rate (p < 0.001)
• SurgingSilentRansomGroup — 9 claims in 7 days against 2.3 expected from its own prior rate (p < 0.001)
• SurgingBrainCipher — 8 claims in 7 days against 1.9 expected from its own prior rate (p < 0.001)
• SurgingBooba Project — 6 claims in 7 days against 2.0 expected from its own prior rate (p = 0.018)
• Surgingbravox — 3 claims in 7 days against 0.8 expected from its own prior rate (p = 0.049)
• Backnitrogen — first claim after 138 days of silence; 0 this week

Gone quiet: AiLock (61 days), abyss (61 days), blackwater (63 days), coinbasecartel (64 days).

Sector pressure, 30 days

• UpTransportation — 2.2× its own prior share (69 claims, 32 expected)
• UpEducation — 1.8× its own prior share (47 claims, 26 expected)
• UpHealthcare — 1.4× its own prior share (112 claims, 80 expected)

22% of claims carry no sector label.

Brand churn

Of the 229 leak-site brands first seen since 2021-09-30, 76% were still claiming 30 days after their first post and 70% were still claiming 60 days after their first post and 67% were still claiming 90 days after their first post and 61% were still claiming 120 days after their first post (Kaplan-Meier; quiet = 60 days without a claim). 19% of the 209 old enough to judge posted on one day and never again; 39% made at least half their claims in their first week. New brands this month: 9 — newest: Whitearmor (2026-10-23, 5 claims), Mimori (2026-10-20, 2 claims), THE SEVEN DEADLY SINS (2026-10-16, 8 claims).

Brands born before coverage began are excluded (their true age is unknown); a rebrand counts as one brand going quiet and another being born.

Targeting

Over the last 180 days, among brands with at least 20 labelled claims: safepay put 35% of its claims on Germany (7.0× every other brand's share); N0n put 34% of its claims on Transportation (7.8× every other brand's share); Storm put 78% of its claims on the United States (2.1× every other brand's share). Widest spread: nightspire across 10.4 effective sectors.

Lift = the brand's share of a sector or country over every other brand's share in the same window; exact binomial tails, Bonferroni-adjusted for the categories tested. Claims with no sector or an Unknown/Other label are excluded.

Posting clock

Over the last 180 days, among brands with at least 30 claims: clop released 92% of its claims on Wednesdays, half of them in 12:00–15:59 UTC; safepay released 63% of its claims on Mondays, half of them in 19:00–19:59 UTC; akira posted only 1 of 194 claims at weekends and half its claims in 12:00–13:59 UTC; half of Deadlock's claims appeared in 12:00–13:59 UTC. Leak sites overall are 37% quieter per weekend day than per weekday.

all brands by hour of day, 00–23 UTC; half of all claims land in 12:00–19:59 UTC.

Times are when trackers first saw each claim on the leak site, in UTC: not the attack time, not the operator's clock, and a site that is only reachable at certain hours shows the same pattern; batch releases show as spikes. Hour-of-day concentration: Rayleigh test; weekday shares: exact binomial against every other brand, Bonferroni-adjusted.

Leak-site claims as discovered by trackers, not confirmed breaches. Surprise compares the last 7 days with the group's own prior 173 days (Poisson). Victim claims: ransomware.live and leak-site trackers

Today’s numbers as JSON →