「鍵認証のみ」は設定上の主張にすぎず、検証した者がいた

• Surgingmedusalocker — 18 claims in 7 days against 1.5 expected from its own prior rate (p < 0.001)
• SurgingBrainCipher — 11 claims in 7 days against 1.7 expected from its own prior rate (p < 0.001)
• SurgingSilentRansomGroup — 9 claims in 7 days against 3.0 expected from its own prior rate (p = 0.004)
• Surgingakira — 16 claims in 7 days against 7.5 expected from its own prior rate (p = 0.004)
• Backbeast — first claim after 56 days of silence; 1 this week
• NewScarlettgroup — first claim 2026-10-08; 11 so far

Gone quiet: kazu (61 days), DYSPHOR1A (62 days), gunra (64 days), lynx (70 days).

Sector pressure, 30 days

• UpTransportation — 1.8× its own prior share (69 claims, 38 expected)
• UpEducation — 1.6× its own prior share (50 claims, 32 expected)
• DownAgriculture and Food Production — 0.6× its own prior share (21 claims, 37 expected)

25% of claims carry no sector label.

Brand churn

Of the 235 leak-site brands first seen since 2021-09-30, 75% were still claiming 30 days after their first post and 70% were still claiming 60 days after their first post and 67% were still claiming 90 days after their first post and 61% were still claiming 120 days after their first post (Kaplan-Meier; quiet = 60 days without a claim). 18% of the 214 old enough to judge posted on one day and never again; 38% made at least half their claims in their first week. New brands this month: 4 — newest: Destello (2026-11-05, 1 claim), Aoqin (2026-11-04, 5 claims), OBSOFT (2026-11-03, 7 claims).

Brands born before coverage began are excluded (their true age is unknown); a rebrand counts as one brand going quiet and another being born.

Targeting

Over the last 180 days, among brands with at least 20 labelled claims: safepay put 33% of its claims on Germany (6.4× every other brand's share); N0n put 30% of its claims on Transportation (6.8× every other brand's share); SilentRansomGroup put 100% of its claims on Professional Services (6.1× every other brand's share). Widest spread: nightspire across 10.6 effective sectors.

Lift = the brand's share of a sector or country over every other brand's share in the same window; exact binomial tails, Bonferroni-adjusted for the categories tested. Claims with no sector or an Unknown/Other label are excluded.

Posting clock

Over the last 180 days, among brands with at least 30 claims: clop released 94% of its claims on Wednesdays, half of them in 13:00–15:59 UTC; safepay released 60% of its claims on Mondays, half of them in 18:00–19:59 UTC; akira posted only 1 of 203 claims at weekends and half its claims in 12:00–13:59 UTC; half of play's claims appeared in 18:00–20:59 UTC. Leak sites overall are 37% quieter per weekend day than per weekday.

all brands by hour of day, 00–23 UTC; half of all claims land in 12:00–19:59 UTC.

Times are when trackers first saw each claim on the leak site, in UTC: not the attack time, not the operator's clock, and a site that is only reachable at certain hours shows the same pattern; batch releases show as spikes. Hour-of-day concentration: Rayleigh test; weekday shares: exact binomial against every other brand, Bonferroni-adjusted.

Leak-site claims as discovered by trackers, not confirmed breaches. Surprise compares the last 7 days with the group's own prior 173 days (Poisson). Victim claims: ransomware.live and leak-site trackers

Today’s numbers as JSON →