KEVにエッジ機器が相次ぎ登録:GitLabの10.0、要求に応じて再起動するファイアウォール、そして攻撃チェーンに組み込まれた2件のIvanti脆弱性

• SurgingBooba Project — 17 claims in 7 days against 2.3 expected from its own prior rate (p < 0.001)
• Surgingrhysida — 8 claims in 7 days against 1.4 expected from its own prior rate (p < 0.001)
• SurgingSilentRansomGroup — 8 claims in 7 days against 2.6 expected from its own prior rate (p = 0.006)
• SurgingFalcon — 3 claims in 7 days against 0.4 expected from its own prior rate (p = 0.007)
• Surgingeverest — 8 claims in 7 days against 2.7 expected from its own prior rate (p = 0.007)
• Surgingaurora — 6 claims in 7 days against 1.8 expected from its own prior rate (p = 0.010)

Gone quiet: lynx (63 days), AiLock (66 days), abyss (66 days), blackwater (68 days).

Sector pressure, 30 days

• UpTransportation — 2.4× its own prior share (74 claims, 31 expected)
• UpEducation — 2.1× its own prior share (54 claims, 26 expected)
• UpEnergy & Utilities — 1.5× its own prior share (37 claims, 24 expected)
• UpHealthcare — 1.3× its own prior share (103 claims, 81 expected)

22% of claims carry no sector label.

Brand churn

Of the 231 leak-site brands first seen since 2021-09-30, 76% were still claiming 30 days after their first post and 70% were still claiming 60 days after their first post and 68% were still claiming 90 days after their first post and 62% were still claiming 120 days after their first post (Kaplan-Meier; quiet = 60 days without a claim). 18% of the 212 old enough to judge posted on one day and never again; 39% made at least half their claims in their first week. New brands this month: 11 — newest: Shiba (2026-10-29, 4 claims), everstake (2026-10-29, 4 claims), Whitearmor (2026-10-23, 16 claims).

Brands born before coverage began are excluded (their true age is unknown); a rebrand counts as one brand going quiet and another being born.

Targeting

Over the last 180 days, among brands with at least 20 labelled claims: safepay put 34% of its claims on Germany (6.7× every other brand's share); N0n put 34% of its claims on Transportation (7.4× every other brand's share); Storm put 78% of its claims on the United States (2.1× every other brand's share). Widest spread: nightspire across 10.6 effective sectors.

Lift = the brand's share of a sector or country over every other brand's share in the same window; exact binomial tails, Bonferroni-adjusted for the categories tested. Claims with no sector or an Unknown/Other label are excluded.

Posting clock

Over the last 180 days, among brands with at least 30 claims: clop released 94% of its claims on Wednesdays, half of them in 13:00–15:59 UTC; safepay released 64% of its claims on Mondays, half of them in 19:00–19:59 UTC; akira posted only 1 of 199 claims at weekends and half its claims in 12:00–13:59 UTC; half of play's claims appeared in 18:00–20:59 UTC. Leak sites overall are 39% quieter per weekend day than per weekday.

all brands by hour of day, 00–23 UTC; half of all claims land in 12:00–19:59 UTC.

Times are when trackers first saw each claim on the leak site, in UTC: not the attack time, not the operator's clock, and a site that is only reachable at certain hours shows the same pattern; batch releases show as spikes. Hour-of-day concentration: Rayleigh test; weekday shares: exact binomial against every other brand, Bonferroni-adjusted.

Leak-site claims as discovered by trackers, not confirmed breaches. Surprise compares the last 7 days with the group's own prior 173 days (Poisson). Victim claims: ransomware.live and leak-site trackers

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